Why Usman vs. Makhachev Is the Right Fight, Even If Fans Don’t Realize It Yet

The right fight, even if fans don't know it!

UFC 322 was one of the best fight cards of the year. Islam Makhachev became the 11th fighter in UFC history to claim titles in two weight divisions by dominating Jack Della Maddalena in a performance that silenced any doubt about his ability to compete with the top fighters in the welterweight division.

But as soon as Makhachev called out Kamaru Usman, fans and analysts were quick to throw water on the idea. 

“He’s too old… He’s not the same fighter... It’s Jones vs. Miocic all over again...” 

This is where I disagree. In fact, I think Usman is exactly the fight to make, and one of the only realistic challenges for Makhachev at 170.

Here’s why.

The Contenders: Exciting & Dangerous, But Untested Against Makhachev’s Skill Set 

UFC 322 also highlighted some of the rising talent at welterweight.

• Carlos Prates - KO’d a former champion
  
  
• Michael Morales - KO’d the #2 contender

Outside of UFC 322, two other contenders have also staked their claim for the title fight.

• Ian Garry - thoroughly outclassed former champ and #1 contender, Belal Muhammad
  
  
• Shavkat Rakhmonov - is undefeated with a near 100% finish rate, and the division’s boogeyman
  

For pure excitement, any combination of those contenders vs Makhachev would be fantastic. But competitive matchups? Matchups that actually test Makhachev’s skill set? Those are much harder to find.

Let’s be honest, none of these fighters have shown the elite defensive grappling, top control escapes, and championship composure needed to survive Makhachev’s style of fighting Makhachev is not a “hope to land the big shot” matchup. It’s a war of attrition with layers, adjustments, and positional battles.

That’s why most of the contenders – Morales, Prates, and, to some extent, Garry – realistically have only one path to victory: Knock out Makhachev. 

That is not enough against the pound-for-pound best fighter in the world.

Shavkat Rakhmonov: The True #1 Contender… But He’s Injured

Rakhmonov is the only rising contender with a complete, UFC-tested skill set. He has a 19–0 record with finishes in all but one fight. His striking, grappling, and clinch work are all elite. If Rakhmonov were healthy, I wouldn’t complain if he got the title fight against Makhachev. He is the most deserving challenger, but he’s not available.

So the question becomes: Who offers Makhachev the toughest challenge right now?
To me, the answer is very clearly Kamaru Usman.

Kamaru Usman: The Most Overlooked Threat in the Division

Fans suffer from recency bias. The UFC motto is “As real as it gets,” but the fanbase operates on the motto “What have you done for me lately?”

Here’s what people forget:

Usman was considered by many to be the welterweight GOAT just 3.5 years ago.

Sure, you could say, “THAT WAS ALMOST 4 YEARS AGO!!” but I think that’s still worth something. Plus, he wasn’t just winning – he was dominating elite fighters like Leon Edwards, Demian Maia, Tyron Woodley, Colby Covington, Jorge Masvidal, and Gilbert Burns.

He was one head kick too many from potentially finishing his career as the greatest welterweight ever. I would even argue that had he not gotten head kicked into the shadow realm, he would have gone on to beat Muhammad and Della Maddalena. 

Even after his losses, he’s shown he still has elite tools.

His fight against Khamzat Chimaev was at middleweight, on two weeks’ notice, and he showed us exactly why he’s a threat to Makhachev. He survived Khamzat’s trademark first-round storm, he stuffed takedowns, got up from bad positions, outstruck Chimaev late, and he showed championship composure.

If that’s what he can do versus a massive middleweight like Chimaev, imagine a full camp against Makhachev.

Stylistically, Usman Is a Great Matchup for Makhachev

This is the heart of my argument and it’s the part most fans aren’t thinking about. These are the 5 key advantages that Usman has that I don’t see in other contenders. 

D2 Wrestling Pedigree

Usman is a Division II national champion and one of the best defensive wrestlers in the sport.

89% Career Takedown Defense

One of the highest in welterweight history. If Makhachev can’t get takedowns easily, that changes everything.

Pressure, Pace, and Cardio

Usman forces opponents backward, something Makhachev rarely experiences.

Championship Experience

Usman’s five-round experience against elite competition matters, and he has more of it than anyone in the division.

Actual Paths to Victory

Unlike the other rising contenders, Usman does not rely on a puncher’s chance.
He has multiple practical paths to victory including:

• Neutralizing the grappling game
  
  
• Keeping the fight standing
  
  
• Pressuring Makhachev to move backward
  
  
• Winning minutes with volume and control
  
  
• Making this fight a cardio battle
  

He has the skill set to compete with Makhachev everywhere. Only he and Rakhmonov can say that.

Why Not Morales, Prates, or Garry?

This isn’t complicated:

Ian Garry

A very talented striker but with no finishing ability at the elite level. His path to victory will be to keep Makhachev at range and stop his takedowns. I think Makhachev is simply too strong of a grappler to allow Garry to implement his path to victory. Garry has wins over Belal Muhammad, Carlos Prates, and MVP, so I put him at third in line for the title shot. 

Michael Morales

Huge power, definitely the most dangerous striker in the division. Has a judo background but we have not seen him use it against elite grapplers. His only proven path to victory that we can accurately speak to, is to KO Makhachev. While this would be exciting to speculate over, the reality is, Makhachev is too experienced and too high-level a fighter to fall into Morales’ plan. I put him fourth in line for the title shot, mostly because of his impressive KO win over #2 contender, Sean Brady.

Carlos Prates

A very entertaining fighter. Fueled by Marlboro and dangerous on the feet, Prates is a very skilled striker. But again, has not been tested against elite grapplers. Plus, he was taken down and controlled by Leon Edwards, who is not known for his grappling abilities. Prates will also have to rely on KO’ing Makhachev, which like I said, makes for a fun build up to a fight that will ultimately be uncompetitive. Prates did KO the former champ Leon Edwards, but he lost to Ian Garry, so I put him at fifth in line to challenge Makhachev. 

Sidebar: A great fight to make in this division is Prates vs Morales. Two entertaining, high-level strikers that are going to try and take each other's heads off for a shot at the title. This would be an amazing fight. 

Only Two Fighters Can Truly Challenge Makhachev

When you strip away hype, highlight reels, and recency bias, the landscape looks simple:

Shavkat Rakhmonov - The most deserving challenger and the best stylistic test.

Kamaru Usman - The most proven challenger and the only other fighter with the skills to compete everywhere.

If Rakhmonov is out, Usman is undeniably the best option.

Any combination between these five fighters vs Makhachev or against each other is an exciting matchup. What I am arguing is that fight fans and the MMA media are overlooking Kamaru Usman as a legitimate challenger to Makhachev and that if this fight gets made, it will be more competitive than most people think. 

Don’t Let Recency Bias Fool You

Usman is not “old news.” He’s not “washed.” He is one of the greatest welterweights in the history of the sport, and he still has the tools to push Makhachev in ways none of the rising contenders can.

If Rakhmonov vs. Makhachev can’t happen next, Usman vs. Makhachev is the most competitive fight available.

It’s the fight that tests Makhachev’s limits, challenges his wrestling, and answers real questions about his place in history. And that’s exactly what a championship fight should do.